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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Kiko's convection has lacked some shape during the past few hours,
with two main bursts observed near the center.  Although subjective
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 (55 kt), ADT and SATCON
estimates, as well as the afternoon ASCAT data, indicate that
Kiko's winds are much weaker than that.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt as a compromise of all the available estimates,
and even that could be generous.

Kiko's future track looks like a roller coaster, with successive
dips and rises in latitude resulting from cyclical strengthening and
weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north.  Although all of the
models depict this general pattern, there is some model speed
divergence after 36 hours.  In the end, however, the updated NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it's close
to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model.

Kiko has re-entered a zone of low shear, and it will soon be
leaving an area of relatively low oceanic heat content.  It may
take a little time for the cyclone to feed off these better
environmental conditions, but re-strengthening is anticipated to
begin by 36 hours and continue for much of the forecast period.
The new intensity forecast is just a little higher than the
previous one, although it's not near the high end of the guidance
envelope.  Additional increases in the forecast peak intensity are
possible in subsequent advisories if the higher-intensity models,
including HCCA, don't come back down.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.7N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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