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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming
apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery.  The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON
are around 75 kt.  On this basis, the initial wind speed as been
raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth
hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season.  Some
additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind
shear conditions.  After that time, slightly cooler waters and a
little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening.  A
faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is
forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear.  The new NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once
again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little
south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward
initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt.  Kiko is currently being
steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico.  The western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which
should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude.  There
continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with
the spread over 400 n mi by day 5.  The latest trend in the
guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC
track has been adjusted in the direction.  The new track forecast
is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional
adjustment may be required in future advisories.  In summary, the
confidence in the track forecast remains quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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