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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has
become significantly better defined.  The storm has also been
producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although
microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath
the eastern side of the convective mass.  Satellite intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few
hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt.
Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the
cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will
increase again soon.  There's still a swath of dry air to the north
and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more
established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and
sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of
days.  The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE)
during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than
the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours.
While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's
still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional
adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories.  Weakening
should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content
and gradually increasing westerly shear.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  Mid-level ridging
to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period.  The
most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through
Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in
the ridge between 120W and 130W.  While the GFS and ECMWF models
still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance
envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has
been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track
uncertainty is not as high as it was previously.  The NHC track
forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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