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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019
Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection
is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an
initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of
Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in
the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next
couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late
this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity.
After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler
waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin
to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily
weaken late in the forecast period.
Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad
mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion
should continue for the next several days. There was a notable
shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone
will move with a little slower forward motion than previously
indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a
slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower
and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of
the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
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Forecaster Latto
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