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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS
at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized
since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near
the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to
diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably
increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been
maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods.

Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely
strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an
environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm
SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the
only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will
intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and
still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is
also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially
between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters
and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin
around that time and continue into mid-week.

Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or
perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion
of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the
tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward
throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north
initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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