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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 05 2019
TD 12E is still very disorganized late this morning with multiple
bursts of seemingly random convection exhibiting little if any
persistent banding. We have relocated TD 12E a little farther west
to a presumed new low-level circulation center based on the GOES-
17 one-minute visible imagery. However, given the disorganization,
confidence in this initial position remains quite low, and it's
possible a new center may be in the process of developing farther
south once again. Intensity estimates ranged from 1.5 from JTWC and
PHFO, to 2.0 from SAB. Without many definitive signs of
organization, we will maintain an intensity of 25 kt for this
advisory.
The difficulty in finding the initial position makes it difficult
to describe a representative initial motion as well. The best
estimate is 270/6. The overall forecast philosophy remains
unchanged, with 12E being steered in the trade wind flow by a weak
subtropical ridge to its north. This ridge is expected to
strengthen and deepen north of the main Hawaiian Islands after 48
hours, keeping the system on a westward track well south of Hawaii.
The GFS has been trending closer to the consensus guidance and
ECMWF, leading to more confidence in the track. Owing to the change
in initial position, the latest forecast track has been nudged a
little farther north and west, but is nearly on top of the now
rather tightly-packed consensus guidance including the TVCN.
TD 12E may continue to struggle awhile longer, embedded in a
relatively dry environment and having a disorganized low-level
structure. The shear is relatively weak, however, and the sea
surface temperatures are warm enough to allow for gradual
strengthening for the next several days, which is expected to begin
once the low level organization finally improves. Toward days 4 and
5, shear is expected to increase near the cyclone which is
expected to slow or possibly halt the intensification trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 12.2N 144.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.2N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.3N 147.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.5N 148.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 12.7N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 14.1N 156.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 16.2N 163.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 17.9N 170.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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