ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2...Correction NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019 The earlier burst of convection over TD 12E has faded, leaving a rather ragged and elliptical looking system. Recent ASCAT data, the subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, and the UW-CIMSS ADT all suggest maintaining the depression at 25 kt. It should be noted there is considerable uncertainty in the initial position owing to the poor organization of the system currently. The relatively shallow nature of the circulation is resulting in an initial motion of about 255/8, as the depression is being steered by relatively weak low level trade wind flow. Guidance is in good agreement that a gradual turn toward due west is expected in a couple of days, with a turn toward the west-northwest thereafter along with an increase in speed as the system moves south of stronger, deep subtropical ridging. There was a slight southward shift in the consensus guidance for this forecast, so the official track has been nudged a little to the south as well. Toward the end of the forecast period, the system should start to move more quickly toward a weakness that develops in the subtropical ridge north of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands. Sea surface temperatures are above 28C along the forecast track of 12E and shear is relatively weak. The main inhibiting factor in the short term appears to be the poor organization and shape of the circulation, as well as some dry air impinging on the northern periphery of the circulation. The guidance suggests gradual strenghtening, and the official forecast does as well assuming the depression can overcome the inhibiting factors. The official forecast splits the difference between the slightly more aggressive SHIPS guidance and the somewhat less agressive dynamical model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.7N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.3N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 12.0N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 11.8N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 11.9N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 12.7N 150.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 14.0N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 16.0N 162.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard NNNN
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