ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern
this morning.  The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the
cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed
during the past couple of hours.  Earlier microwave imagery showed a
well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the
satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB.  The various satellite intensity
estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt
is maintained for this advisory.

Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear
is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days.  This
will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is
typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in
the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should
cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.
The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model.

The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt.  A general northwestward
motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over
the southwestern United States should continue today.  A turn toward
the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next
couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the
easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the
previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN