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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually
degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry
slots within the circulation.  The cloud pattern consists of a
central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement
with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Juliette
is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that
is expected to change soon.  The hurricane will likely be crossing
the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters,
and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening.  The
GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in
about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C.  The
NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue
west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the
cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be
steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow.  The models are
in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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