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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a
weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are
evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent
well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest
subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix
agencies also continue to show gradual weakening.  Based on this
input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.
Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind
radii for this advisory.

The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous
12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the
circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending
over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States.
This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward
during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of
its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be
steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast
is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward
the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX
consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable,
surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should
cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The
latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening
trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much
of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster
than the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

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