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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in
visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around
1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone
has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has
been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that
basin since July 31.

The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why
this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid
intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the
intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising
that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly
during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable
environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current
intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the
intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive
structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again
close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening
quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment.

Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt.
There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still
generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive
deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone.
The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette
for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains
high through that period. The global models then vary on the
strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the
end of the forecast.  For now, the NHC forecast continues to split
the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at
all times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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