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Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the
center of circulation this evening, the banding features still
remain quite fragmented.  The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate
during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a
moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface
temperatures.  After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over
decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air
mass which should induce gradual weakening.  The NHC forecast
follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a
mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from
the southwestern United States.  The cyclone should continue moving
west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction
in forward speed during the next 48 hours.  Beyond that time, the
cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to
large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical
ridge.  The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone
turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge,
while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and
induce a more northwestward track.  The new official forecast is
nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE
consensus and the ECMWF global.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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