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Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued
to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present.  That said,
the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent
ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt.

No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving
northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette
will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days,
with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in
the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model
spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an
amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge
will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC
forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very
close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth
noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h
and beyond.

Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient
environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the
next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the
tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification
guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago.
Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast,
and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By
the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over
cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should
cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north
than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette
takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could
maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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