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TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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