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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear
affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level
center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The
center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery,
and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic
Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the
surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt.
This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the
cyclone.

Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass
measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value
was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt,
which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a
tad higher.

The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or
so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same
intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin
to weaken over cooler waters.  Unanimously, all the models weaken
the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner,
Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low.

The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9
kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since
the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general
motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The
NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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