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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Visible satellite images show a bit of a surprise with Ivo this
afternoon.  The system is not as well organized as earlier
microwave data displayed, with the center almost partially exposed
on the northeastern side of the central dense overcast.  The
initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is in line with TAFB/SAB
estimates and 50-55 kt ASCAT-C winds.  With shear still forecast to
increase overnight, only slight intensification of Ivo is
anticipated.  While Ivo could still become a hurricane, almost all
of the guidance has backed off on this cycle.  Weakening should
begin over the weekend when the storm moves over progressive cooler
waters.  Convection is likely to dissipate in about 72 hours, and
post-tropical status of Ivo is forecast at that time.  Overall the
new forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one, near or
slightly above the model consensus.

Ivo has turned west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. The storm should
turn to the northwest tomorrow and north-northwest on Saturday due
to steering from a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  Model guidance is
coming into better agreement on this course, with fairly small
variations.  Overall, the small eastward trend seen in the guidance
continues, and the new NHC prediction is shifted a little eastward
at long range.  Still, none of the guidance still show a direct
tropical cyclone threat to Mexico at this time.

It is worth noting that the current size of Ivo has been greatly
increased due to the ASCAT-C data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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