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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized
and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well-
defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more
embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the
improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not
increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt.  Because the cloud
pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been
increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and
SATCON estimates.

The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to
strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter,
Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting
in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius
waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The
intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a
little higher than the consensus.

Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a
little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the
convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of
the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees
at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a
subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should
steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This
general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous
one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope
and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model
average TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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