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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092019
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of
the cyclone overnight.  Although the system is sheared with the
center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a
couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt
winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation.  These
winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but
based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to
35 kt.  Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern
Pacific basin this season.

The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning,
and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west-
northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move
west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  As Henriette
weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be
closer to the various consensus aids.

Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more.  Although the
system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of
light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level
air is likely to prevent significant strengthening.  By Tuesday
morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a
more stable airmass.  This should lead to weakening, and the
cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within
48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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