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Tropical Depression GIL (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Shortly after 1200 UTC, Gil lost all of its central deep convection
due to strong southwesterly to westerly shear and entrainment of
dry air as per GOES-17 mid-level water vapor imagery.  The cyclone
now consists of a tight swirl of mainly low clouds, with the nearest
convection located more than 150 nmi to the east of the center. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a Dvorak
T-number of T1.5/25 kt. Gil is expected to continue to weaken due
to the aforementioned adverse conditions, degenerating into a
remnant low later today and dissipating by late Monday.

Gil has continued to move westward or 270/09 kt.  The shallow
cyclone is now embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind
flow, and Gil is expected to maintain a general westward motion
until dissipation occurs in 36-48 hours. The official track forecast
is nearly on top of of the previous advisory track and lies close to
a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the ECMWF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 14.9N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Dec-2019 12:09:50 UTC