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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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