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Tropical Depression Flossie Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072019
500 AM HST Mon Aug 05 2019
 
A few bursts of deep convection have developed well to the north of
the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Flossie early this
morning. The LLCC itself has been exposed for nearly 24 hours
however, due to strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear,
analyzed to be around 30 knots. The latest subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimate from PHFO was 2.0 (30 knots). The Advanced Dvorak
Technique (ADT) current intensity estimate was 1.5 (25 knots). The
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 30 knots. The
initial motion has been set at 285/13 knots.

Flossie is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a
slight decrease in forward speed later today as it rounds the
southwestern periphery of a large subtropical ridge to the distant
northeast. This general motion is then expected to continue through
dissipation late Tuesday or Tuesday night. The latest track guidance
has shifted to the north, and as a result, the official forecast
track was adjusted slightly to the north of the previous advisory.
This will bring the center of Flossie or its remnant low, very close
to the main Hawaiian Islands later today through Tuesday.
 
Strong westerly vertical wind shear of 30 to 40 knots will continue
to affect Flossie over the next couple days, inhibiting any
intensification or re-organization of the tropical cyclone. Although
brief bursts of deep convection will likely continue during the next
couple days, Flossie is expected to become a post-tropical remnant
low later today, with dissipation expected late Tuesday or Tuesday
night. The official intensity forecast remains closely in line with
the latest statistical and dynamical guidance.
 
Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should refer to products
issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu for information
on flooding and surf impacts from Tropical Depression Flossie.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 19.7N 152.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 20.3N 154.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z 21.5N 156.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 22.9N 157.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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