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Tropical Depression Flossie Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072019
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 04 2019
 
The low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Flossie has been devoid
of deep convection since around 1800 UTC, due to strong westerly
vertical wind shear, analyzed to be around 30 knots. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from PHFO was 2.0 (30
knots), while the system was deemed too weak to classify by SAB and
JTWC. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) current intensity estimate
was 1.5 (25 knots). The initial intensity for this advisory has been
held, perhaps generously, at 30 knots. The initial motion has been
set at 285/13 knots.

The west-northwest motion will continue tonight, with a turn toward
the northwest and a slight decrease in forward speed expected Monday
and Monday night as Flossie rounds the southwestern periphery of a
large subtropical ridge to the distant northeast. The latest
track guidance has shifted to the north, and as a result, the
official forecast track was adjusted slightly to the north of the
previous advisory. This will bring the center of Flossie or its
remnant low, very close to the main Hawaiian Islands Monday through
Tuesday.

Strong westerly vertical wind shear of 30 to 40 knots will lead to
continued weakening of Flossie over the next couple days. Flossie
is expected to remain a tropical depression tonight, before
weakening into a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. The remnant
low is then forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. The official intensity
forecast remains closely in line with the latest statistical and
dynamical guidance.
 
Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should refer to products
issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu for information
on flooding and surf impacts from Tropical Depression Flossie.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 19.4N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 19.8N 153.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 20.8N 155.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 22.0N 157.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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