ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 23 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072019 500 PM HST Fri Aug 02 2019 Tropical Storm Flossie has crossed into the Central North Pacific basin as a messy system. Satellite images indicated limited deep convection displaced northeast of the partially exposed low level circulation center. Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 3.0/45 kt from PFHO, JTWC, and SAB, and the CIMSS ADT value at 3/0000 UTC was 3.3/51 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, and the poor appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 50 kt. There is no change to the forecast track plan. Flossie continues to move west-northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. This direction of motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours but with a slightly slower forward speed. Large-scale models indicate that the ridge will weaken as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. This should turn Flossie toward a northwestward, and then northward track beyond the 48 hour time frame. All of the models are in general agreement with this scenario, though HWRF and HMON indicate less of a turn and are thus on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The forecast for this advisory is right on the previous forecast through 24 hours, then nudged slightly south of the previous track from 36 hours and beyond to line up more closely with the TVCN and HCCA consensus. Flossie is expected to traverse over marginal sea surface temperatures through the forecast period. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to increase to above 30 knots after 48 hours in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance. Given these factors, the model intensity guidance shows continued weakening through the forecast period. The current forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA guidance, and makes Flossie a tropical depression after 48 hours to the east of the main Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.9N 141.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.0N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.4N 154.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 31.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:52 UTC