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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Recent long- and short- wave infrared satellite images show that
tropical storm Flossie is a little more symmetric than it was last
night. The center of the tropical storm appears to be more embedded
within its central dense overcast. That said, the Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have not changed since 6 hours ago.
Scatterometer data from earlier this morning supported max winds of
about 60 kt, and this is agrees with the Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB, so the initial intensity remains at that value.

The track forecast has not been significantly changed from the
previous advisory. Flossie continues to move west-northwestward, now
at about 15 kt, and a subtropical ridge to the north should keep
Flossie on this general heading for another 2 or 3 days. Most of the
models suggest that Flossie will slow down slightly and then turn
northwestward early next week, ahead of an upper-level trough
located northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  By day 4, a turn toward
the north is forecast by all of the typically reliable global
models. The NHC forecast follows suit, showing recurvature east of
Hawaii, and is very close to the HCCA and TVCE models at all
forecast hours.

All of the intensity guidance forecasts that Flossie will gradually
weaken over the next 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving over
marginal sea surface temperatures near 26 deg C, and moderate shear
of around 20 kt should continue to affect the cyclone through early
next week. By 72 h, a sharp increase in westerly shear should
occur as Flossie approaches the aforementioned upper-level trough,
and additional weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the
low-spread intensity guidance envelope.

On the forecast track, Flossie will move into the Central Pacific
basin later today, at which point the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center will assume forecast responsibilities. For information
specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult
products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in
Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.1N 137.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.6N 140.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.3N 142.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.9N 145.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.9N 152.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 24.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 29.0N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

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