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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
500 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019
 
Flossie has the structure of a strongly sheared cyclone. Several
recent microwave passes have revealed that Flossie's center is
displaced to the northwest of all of its deep convection, and IR
imagery shows a sharp cloud-top temperature gradient in the
northwest quadrant of the hurricane. A blend of Final-T and CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB is the basis for the initial intensity of
65 kt, however it is certainly possible that Flossie is weaker than
that.
 
Given the current structure of Flossie (or lack thereof), a
substantial change was made to the intensity forecast. The global
models indicate that the current shear affecting the cyclone will
likely continue for another 24 h or so and Flossie is now forecast
to become a tropical storm during that time. In fact, the
statistical guidance suggests that Flossie will merely gradually
weaken for the next 5 days. On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and
regional hurricane models indicate that the upper-level environment
could become more favorable in a few days, so some
re-intensification is possible at that time. The NHC forecast now
closely follows the intensity consensus through 48 h and then blends
back toward the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond, still favoring
the dynamical models at that time.
 
On the other hand, very little adjustment was required to the track
forecast. The initial motion is 285/13 kt, and a persistent
mid-level ridge to the north should keep Flossie moving
west-northwestward or westward at a steady forward speed for the
next 4 to 5 days. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is very close the typically reliable TVCE and
HCCA aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 14.0N 125.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 15.2N 130.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 15.8N 133.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 16.2N 135.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 17.2N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 17.8N 146.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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