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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection continues to pulse
near the center of Flossie, with cloud-top temperatures to -92C
observed during the past several hours.  Microwave data show the
center is just south of those overshooting tops, and about half a
ragged eyewall is present.  The initial wind speed is raised to 70
kt, which is a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB.

The cyclone continues to have difficulty closing off a complete
eyewall, likely due to northwesterly shear and some dry air aloft as
indicated by outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle.
The environment is forecast to become less conducive late on
Wednesday, possibly due to some of the outflow from Hurricane Erick
impacting Flossie, and the predicted NHC intensity briefly levels
off on Thursday. Thereafter, the upper-level winds do become
lighter, but the center is still fairly close to a high-shear
region, so only slight intensification is shown.  Model guidance has
generally come down quite a bit since the last cycle, which is
consistent with the iffy environment, so the NHC forecast is reduced
about 5 kt from the previous one in the first 48 hours.  After 3
days, the NHC forecast indicates slow weakening after considering
marginal water temperatures and light/moderate westerly shear,
although it should be mentioned the models are in poor agreement on
the long-range intensity.

A 0107 UTC SSMI/S pass nicely shows the center of Flossie, which
helps to give a more confident initial motion of 285/12.  A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to be the
primary steering during the next several days, yielding a general
west-northwest motion.  A turn to the west is probable at long-range
since the ridge builds westward ahead of the cyclone.  The models
remain in fairly good agreement, so the latest NHC track forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, shaded a bit toward the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 12.8N 122.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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