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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

Deep convection associated with Flossie has been increasing in both
intensity and coverage during the past several hours, and the
cyclone now consists of a well-organized central dense overcast
with some broken outer bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are now both 4.0/65 kt and, based on this data, Flossie has
been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Flossie is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a mid-level
ridge that is situated to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This
ridge is expected to be the primary steering feature during the
next several days, and it should cause Flossie to move westward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed through the
weekend.  The models are tightly clustered, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  This
forecast lies near the consensus aids, which usually have the
lowest track errors.

The cyclone is expected to be in generally favorable environmental
conditions to strengthen during the next day or so.  After that
time, however, the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane
gradually decrease and the wind shear is expected to increase a
little.  A combination of these factors should end the strengthening
trend and induce a slow weakening by the weekend.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a tad lower than the previous one, but it lies near the
high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and
IVDR consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.3N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 17.3N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 18.1N 147.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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