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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Flossie's overall appearance has not changed much over the past
several hours. There continues to be some dry air evident over the
northern semicircle that is entraining into the storm's circulation
and the SHIPS guidance also suggests there is about 10 kt of
northerly shear across the system. This has resulted in most of the
deep convection being confined to the southern semicircle for
much of tonight. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is in
agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB.

The motion over the past 12 hours has been just south of due west,
or 265/15 kt. A turn to the west to west-northwest is expected by
later today or tonight and this general motion is expected to
continue for the remainder of the forecast period as Flossie is
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast track is
very close to the previous one.

Recently, deep convection has been trying to wrap around the
northeastern portion of the circulation. If this trend were to
continue, then strengthening would likely resume in the near term.
There is about a 48-hour window remaining for Flossie to
significantly intensify in a fairly favorable environment. The
lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a
greater than 50 percent chance for Flossie to intensify by 25 kt
over a 24 hour period. However, Flossie will need to consolidate its
inner core soon if this rapid strengthening is to occur. The
official NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening through much of
today, followed by a 24 hour period of more rapid strengthening that
would make Flossie a category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. After 48
hours, increasing shear and marginal SSTs are expected to cause a
weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast as well as the NOAA corrected consensus,
HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.2N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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