ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 The GOES-17 water vapor presentation, along with the upper-level satellite-derived winds, reveals that an upper anticyclone just to the north of Flossie is still producing modest vertical wind shear. This inhibiting wind pattern is also confirmed by a recent METOP-B AMSU pass that depicted a lack of deep convection in the northern portion of the cyclone. The subjective and objective intensity estimates, along with an earlier 1517 UTC SATCON analysis, yield an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Flossie is forecast to gradually intensify into a category 2 hurricane in 3 days, then commence a slow weakening trend as the cyclone moves into a more stable and drier air mass, along with increasing wind shear. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the NOAA HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble, and is similar to the previous package. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A strong, deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Flossie should influence a generally westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the official NHC track forecast is again hedged toward the NOAA HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 136.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:52 UTC