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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

A series of fortuitous microwave images was helpful in locating the
center of circulation and revealed significant banding improvements
in the south semicircle portion of the cyclone. Although the
subjective satellite T-number estimates only yield an intensity of
35 kt, subsequent SATCON analysis of 50 kt and the ADT estimate of
47 kt support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt for this
advisory.

The ocean is warm and the shear is low, therefore, strengthening
should continue and Flossie is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours.  The GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS and the global models are
showing increasing northerly vertical shear beyond the 48-hour
period, which should curtail the intensification rate through the
remainder of the forecast period.  Both the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus reflect this trend, and the official
forecast was adjusted downward just a bit from the last advisory
to agree with these models.  It's still worth noting, however, that
Flossie could undergo rapid intensification during the next 48
hours, as indicated by a 40 percent probability of that occurring in
the SHIPS RI guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt.  A
deep-layer ridge is well-established and anchored to the north of
the cyclone, and should steer Flossie generally westward to
west-northwestward through the entire forecast period.  The model
suite remains tightly clustered and no adjustments have been made
to the previous forecast, which again is close to the better
performing TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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