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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the
depression has again changed little in organization since the last
advisory.  The circulation remains broad, with apparent multiple
vorticity centers rotating around the mean center, and the
convection is in a loosely curved band over the northern semicircle.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
are in the 30-35 kt range, and based on the unchanged organization
the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The initial motion is 285/18.  Deep-layer ridging to the north of
the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-
northwestward through the forecast period, with some decrease in
the forward speed after 24 h when it moves south of a slight
weakness in the ridge.  The track guidance is very tightly clustered
and has changed little from the last advisory.  Thus, the new NHC
track forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near
the various consensus models.

The cyclone is expected to be in a nearly ideal environment for
strengthening for at least the next 3 days, and the intensity
guidance suggests a good chance of rapid intensification once an
inner core becomes established.  Given the current structure, it is
expected that it will take 12-24 h for the inner core to form.
Based on this and the guidance, the new NHC intensity forecast calls
for steady strengthening for the first 24 h, followed by a faster
intensification from 24-72 h.  The new forecast is again increased
above the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the
guidance.  It should be noted that once rapid intensification
starts, the system could strengthen faster than currently forecast
and reach category 3 or higher intensity.  After 72 h, the forecast
track takes the system over slightly cooler water and into an area
of northwesterly shear, and the intensity forecasts calls for slow
weakening during this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 12.2N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 12.6N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 12.6N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 12.6N 119.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 12.8N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 13.8N 127.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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