ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 300 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 The depression has not changed much in organization since the previous advisory. The system has a broad circulation, with the low-level center located near the southeastern edge of a long convective band. Dvorak classifications are now a consensus T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, which supports maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt. This is also in good agreement with just-received ASCAT-C data. Various objective analyses suggest that the shear over the system is light, but that doesn't appear to be the case based on high-level cloud motions seen on visible satellite imagery. Even with the depression's fast forward speed, the center is chasing the convection out ahead of it. Given the cyclone's current structure, only slow strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours while the depression continues to become better organized. Once an inner core forms, faster strengthening is likely due to low shear and warm waters, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane just after 48 hours. In fact, SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices indicate that there is about a 40 percent chance that the cyclone's winds will increase by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one, especially after 48 hours, and most closely follows the HWRF and the European version of the SHIPS model, which lie above the intensity consensus and near the upper bound of the guidance envelope. The initial motion is still fast--285/17 kt--due to the strength of the mid-level high to the north. Ridging is expected to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the entire 5-day forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed as it moves south of a weakness in the ridge. The track models are still tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is very close to HCCA and the other multi-model consensus aids, which also ends up being very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 11.5N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 11.9N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 12.8N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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