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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

The depression has not changed much in organization since the
previous advisory.  The system has a broad circulation, with the
low-level center located near the southeastern edge of a long
convective band.  Dvorak classifications are now a consensus T2.0
from TAFB and SAB, which supports maintaining an initial intensity
of 30 kt.  This is also in good agreement with just-received
ASCAT-C data.

Various objective analyses suggest that the shear over the system is
light, but that doesn't appear to be the case based on high-level
cloud motions seen on visible satellite imagery.  Even with the
depression's fast forward speed, the center is chasing the
convection out ahead of it.  Given the cyclone's current structure,
only slow strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours
while the depression continues to become better organized.  Once
an inner core forms, faster strengthening is likely due to low shear
and warm waters, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane
just after 48 hours.  In fact, SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices
indicate that there is about a 40 percent chance that the cyclone's
winds will increase by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the
previous one, especially after 48 hours, and most closely follows
the HWRF and the European version of the SHIPS model, which lie
above the intensity consensus and near the upper bound of the
guidance envelope.

The initial motion is still fast--285/17 kt--due to the strength of
the mid-level high to the north.  Ridging is expected to keep the
cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the entire
5-day forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed as it
moves south of a weakness in the ridge.  The track models are still
tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is very close to HCCA
and the other multi-model consensus aids, which also ends up being
very close to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 11.5N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 11.9N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 12.1N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 12.1N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 12.8N 125.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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