ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 First-light visible satellite images have revealed that the area of low pressure located southwest of the coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined center of circulation. The convective pattern has also increased in organization, with a pronounced band wrapping from the west to north of the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T1.5/25 kt from TAFB, and advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. Tropical Depression Seven-E is moving quickly along the southern periphery of mid-level ridging that is centered along the U.S/Mexico border, and its initial motion estimate is 285/18 kt. A weakness in the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula should allow the cyclone to slow down some after 24 hours, but the trajectory is expected to be either westward or west-northwestward for the entire 5-day forecast period. There is very little spread among the track models, and this initial NHC forecast has generally been placed between the various multi-model consensus models and the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA). The convective pattern and upper-level cloud motions suggest that there's a little bit of shear over the system from the east-northeast, but that shear should abate over the next 24 hours. The cyclone will also be over deep warm water, with sea surface temperatures remaining above 27 degrees Celsius for the entire forecast period. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN intensity consensus and close to the HCCA guidance for much of the forecast period. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and it is likely to become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 11.2N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 11.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 12.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 12.1N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.0N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 12.5N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:52 UTC