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HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062019
2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 148.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 289 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  40SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 148.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 148.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.2N 150.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.7N 152.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 155.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 157.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 162.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 166.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 169.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 148.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
 
 
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