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HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 140.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO
HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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