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TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 137.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 138.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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