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TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN


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