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Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 04 2019
 
Deep convection around Erick flared up again last night as the
center passed beneath divergence associated with an upper level
trough dropping down from the northwest. The area of deep
convection has shifted east this morning and what's left of the low
level circulation center has once again become fully exposed and
more poorly defined than yesterday. The Dvorak intensity estimates
came in at 2.0/30 kt from SAB, and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC and PHFO. The
UW/CIMSS ADT estimate was 2.0/30 kt at 04/1800 UTC. Based on these
estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt for this
advisory though this may be generous. 

The UW/CIMSS 04/1800 UTC shear estimate was 48 kt over Erick. This
strong vertical shear is not expected to change much through the
remaining life cycle of this tropical depression. While there may be
occasional pulses of deep convection, upper level conditions become
less favorable over the next day or so, which should allow Erick's
circulation to spin down until dissipation over the next day or so.
If significant central deep convection does not regenerate, Erick
will be declared a post tropical remnant low, possibly later today
or tonight.

Erick is moving at 290/11 kt within a low level steering current.
This general motion is expected to continue through dissipation.
The forecast was nudged slightly north because of an adjustment to
the initial position, but otherwise follows the trend of the
previous forecast, and is close to the TVCN, GFEX, and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 19.2N 168.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 19.7N 169.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 20.1N 170.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 20.3N 172.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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