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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 02 2019
 
Erick is barely holding on to tropical storm status this evening,
as relentless strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear
continues to hammer the system. The latest UW-CIMSS vertical wind
shear analysis shows 42 knots of shear over the system, with 50 to
60 knots of shear just to the north of the system. The latest
current intensity estimates from the satellite agencies were a
unanimous 2.5/35 knots, with the Advanced Dvorak Technique coming
in at 2.9/43 knots. The initial intensity for this advisory has
been held at 35 knots, with the initial motion set at 280/12 knots.

Erick is being steered westward by a low-mid level ridge to the
north. The system is expected to continue to track westward
tonight, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast as Erick
rounds the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The track forecast
has been nudged to the south of the previous track through the
first 12 hours due to the more westward initial motion, then is
very close to the previous official forecast thereafter. This
track forecast is to the south of the consensus guidance which
seems to be influenced by the GFS which is a northern outlier. 

Strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear will continue to
weaken Erick over the next couple days. The tropical cyclone is
expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression later tonight or
Saturday morning, then become a remnant low late Saturday or
Saturday night, with dissipation into a trough expected late Sunday
or Sunday night. The intensity forecast is closely aligned with the
latest statistical guidance through dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 17.3N 160.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.7N 162.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 18.8N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 19.7N 166.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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