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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 PM HST Fri Aug 02 2019
 
Erick continues to weaken under strong southwesterly vertical wind
shear. Short-lived bursts of deep convection have caused the
low-level circulation center to become elongated, and while the
center had been exposed through most of the day, a recent flare up
is obscuring the feature. Subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from all agencies came in at 35 kt, and the initial
intensity of Erick has been lowered to 35 kt.

The longer term average motion of Erick is 290/8 kt, though the most
recent burst of convection may continue to disrupt the low-level
circulation center and lead to erratic short-term movement. During
the next couple of days, Erick will be steered on a general
west-northwestward motion by a low- to mid-level ridge to the
north. This will keep the system well south of the Hawaii. The
track forecast lies near TVCN toward the middle of the guidance
envelope until dissipation. 

Weakening will continue. The low-level circulation center is already
losing definition, and an upper-level trough parked to the north
will maintain relentless vertical wind shear through the next few
days. With this in mind, the forecast weakening trend has been
accelerated again. Erick is now expected to become a tropical
depression overnight and weaken to a post-tropical remnant low by
Saturday. The current forecast remains close to HCCA and IVCN and
weakens Erick at a slower rate than the statistical guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N 159.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.5N 160.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.3N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 19.3N 164.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 19.9N 166.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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