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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 01 2019
 
The satellite presentation of Erick continues to gradually degrade
under southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. An area
of persistent deep convection and elevated lightning activity is
holding near the core, but a series of microwave passes at 1328,
1513, 1621, and 1632 UTC suggest that the tropical cyclone is
becoming tilted with height due to the wind shear. Subjective Dvorak
and CIMSS ADT current intensity numbers ranged from 4.5 to 5.0, with
the subjective Final T numbers coming in at 3.5 to 5.0. A blend of
these estimates would suggest that Erick remains a 75 knot
hurricane, but further degradation on satellite imagery since the
Dvorak fix time compels lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt for
this advisory.

Due to the absence of an eye and the suspected tilting of the
tropical cyclone with height, locating the low-level center has been
challenging. However, earlier microwave passes and recent GOES-17
imagery suggest that overnight position estimates were too far north
and west. After some adjustments, the initial motion estimate is
285/12 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected to
persist over the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and a loss of forward speed as the low- to mid-level ridge
steering Erick is weakened by an upper-level trough. The forecast
track has changed little from the prior advisory, staying close to
the middle of the guidance envelope near the UKMET. The spread in
the guidance increases beyond 48 hours, though Erick will have
already passed south of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Steady weakening is expected during the next several days. Erick
will be approaching an upper-level trough that will produce
relentless vertical wind shear of around 30 kt. Since the philosophy
remains unchanged, the intensity forecast closely follows the prior
forecast. As a result, the official forecast is now a little more
aggressive than all of the guidance in the next 24 hours, even
though it remains close to the CTCI and SHIPS throughout most of the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 16.0N 153.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.4N 155.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.9N 158.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.5N 160.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.2N 162.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.9N 165.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.5N 168.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 22.6N 170.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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