ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 PM HST Wed Jul 31 2019
 
Hurricane Erick is slowly weakening as seen in recent satellite
imagery with the eye becoming cloud filled. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from all fix sites came in at 4.5/77
kt. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been
decreased 90 kt which may be a big generous. Erick continues moving
slightly north of due west with little change in forward speed. The
initial motion estimate for this advisory is 280 degrees at 14 mph.
 
Track guidance remains tightly clustered through 72 hours with
some divergence in the guidance on days 4 and 5. The latest forecast
track has changed little from the previous forecast through 72
hours with a slightly north of due west motion expected as a strong
subtropical ridge remains north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The
track forecast for days 4 and 5 has been adjusted slightly to the
left of the previous forecast which is in line with most of the
reliable model guidance.
 
The intensity guidance remains consistent indicating a gradual
weakening trend through the entire forecast period. This is due to
an upper trough just north of the main Hawaiian Islands which is
inducing southwesterly wind shear over the system. The UW-CIMSS
vertical shear magnitude is currently 22 kt from the southwest. As
the system continues moving toward the west-northwest, the shear is
forecast to increase with Erick weakening to a tropical depression
in about 96 hours.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 15.1N 149.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.5N 151.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 16.1N 153.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.6N 156.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 17.1N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 18.4N 163.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 19.9N 166.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 21.0N 169.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
NNNN