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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019
 
Hurricane Erick is showing signs of weakening in recent satellite
imagery. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were 4.5/77
kt from PHFO, 5.0/90 kt from JTWC and 5.5/102 kt from SAB. The
initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been decreased
slightly to 100 kt. Erick continues moving slightly north of due
west with little change in forward speed. The initial motion
estimate for this advisory is 289 degrees at 14 mph. 

Track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours with some
divergence in the guidance on days 4 and 5. The latest forecast
track has changed little from the previous forecast through 72
hours with a slightly north of due west motion expected due to a
strong subtropical ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The
track forecast for days 4 and 5 has been adjusted to the left of the
previous forecast which is in line with most of the reliable model
guidance.  

The intensity guidance remains consistent indicating a gradual 
weakening trend through the entire forecast period. This is due to 
an upper trough just north of the main Hawaiian Islands which is 
inducing southwesterly wind shear over the system. The UW-CIMSS
vertical shear magnitude is currently 20 kt from the southwest. As
the system continues moving toward the west-northwest, the shear is
forecast to increase with Erick weakening to a tropical depression
by day 5
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 14.8N 148.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.2N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.7N 152.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 16.2N 155.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 16.7N 157.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 18.3N 162.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.1N 166.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 21.7N 169.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
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