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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019
 
Convection consolidated over the center of Erick as the sun set on 
Monday, and the hurricane has rapidly intensified since then. 
Satellite imagery shows a persistent warm eye surrounded by a solid 
ring of deep convection that is producing bursts of eyewall 
lightning, indicating that the intensification trend continues. 
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are 6.0/115 kt, leading to an 
initial intensity estimate of 115 kt, making Erick a category 4 
hurricane. 

The window for further intensification appears to be small, as 
increased vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) lies along the forecast 
track, especially after about 36 hours. Once Erick encounters this 
southwesterly shear, associated with a semi-permanent upper-level
trough northwest of Hawaii, a rapid weakening trend is expected. In
the meantime, slight intensification is anticipated, although an
eyewall replacement cycle cannot be completely ruled out. Latest
intensity guidance supports the ongoing forecast, and little
significant change was made to the official forecast, which closely
follows trends presented by the intensity consensus IVCN. 

The forward motion of the cyclone has slowed since yesterday, and 
the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 275/13 kt. In the 
mid-levels, Erick is being steered by a ridge to the north that is 
expected to build westward over the next couple of days. A slight 
turn to the west-northwest and some slowing in forward speed is 
expected in the short term as Erick remains a strong hurricane 
interacting with the deep-layer flow. There are still notable
differences amongst the track models through this time frame, with
HWRF/COAMPS-TC to the right of the official forecast, and ECMWF to
the left. With most guidance tending to be too slow and poleward to
this point, the official forecast was nudged equatorward, closer to
the well-performing ECMWF guidance, and close to FSSE/HCCA. Toward
the end of the forecast period, Erick will reach the western
periphery of the ridge, allowing the weakened cyclone to gain
latitude. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 13.6N 144.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 14.2N 145.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 14.9N 147.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 15.3N 150.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.8N 152.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 16.8N 157.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.5N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 20.0N 165.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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