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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

The eye of hurricane became much more distinct in infrared
satellite imagery overnight, which indicates that rapid
intensification has occurred. The latest intensity estimates 
from the satellite agencies are 5.0 (90 kt) from SAB, 5.5 (102 kt)
from HFO, and 6.0 (115 kt) from JTWC. The  CIMSS ADT estimate using
the raw T number suggests the intensity is close to 100 kt. For this
advisory, we are intensifying Erick to 100 kt, so it is now a major
hurricane. Note that the initial wind radii for this advisory were
adjusted based on a 0633Z ASCAT pass, which covered nearly the
entire circulation of Erick.
 
The hurricane's initial motion is 280/15 kt for this advisory. The
mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to weaken later
today, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion toward the
west-northwest. The track guidance now appears to have somewhat less
spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean continue to be
slightly faster than the rest of the models. For this advisory, we
are more closely following the latest NOAA corrected consensus
(HCCA) output. As a result, the track has been nudged slightly to
the right of the previous forecast during the 12-48 hour time frame.
After that, the latest track forecast follows the previous forecast
during days 3-5.
 
The latest estimates for wind shear in the vicinity of Erick appear
to be less than 10 kt from the west. In addition, sea surface
temperatures remain close to 28C along the track for the next couple
of days, and the CIRA Ocean Heat Content values show sufficient warm
water at depth along the forecast track. Therefore, the environment
around Erick will likely remain conducive for additional
intensification during the next 12-24 hours. The current forecast
closely follows the HCCA, as well as the consensus intensity
forecast output, IVCN. Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin
starting around 36 hours, and continuing through 48 hours. After
that time, the circulation around a broad upper-level trough in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands will likely cause a significant
increase in shear (at least 25 kt from the west) as Erick continues
to move toward the west-northwest. Therefore, this advisory
continues to show rapid weakening during the 2-3 day time frame.
This weakening trend will likely persist during days 4 and 5. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 13.4N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 14.0N 144.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 14.8N 146.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 15.4N 148.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 15.9N 150.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 16.6N 155.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 17.5N 160.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 19.0N 164.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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