ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019
 
Hurricane Erick, which is the first tropical cyclone to enter the
central Pacific during the 2019 Hurricane Season, has been showing
signs of an eye trying to emerge in conventional infrared satellite
imagery this evening. Microwave images also continue to show
evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The
latest intensity estimates from the satellite agencies are 4.0(65
kt) from SAB, 4.5(77 kt) from HFO, and 5.0(90 kt) from JTWC. The
latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 3.9(63 kt). For this advisory, we are
intensifying Erick slightly to 70 kt as a compromise, since the eye
has not become clearly defined yet.
 
The hurricane's short-term motion appears to be slightly slower
than 6 hours ago, but the longer-term motion is 280/15 kt for this
advisory. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to
weaken Tuesday, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion
toward the west-northwest. The track guidance continues to have some
spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean remain faster than
the rest of the models. For this advisory, we have kept the track
forecast similar to the previous package. 
 
We continue to believe that the environment around Erick will remain
conducive for additional intensification during the next 36-48
hours. The latest forecast again indicates Erick may attain major
hurricane status during the next couple of days. The circulation
around a broad upper-level trough in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands will likely cause a significant increase in shear as Erick
continues to move toward the west-northwest beyond 48 hours.
Therefore, this advisory continues to show rapid weakening during
the 2 to 3 day time frame. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 13.1N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
NNNN