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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019
Corrected Central Pacific Hurricane Center web link
Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.
The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.
This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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