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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has
taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80
deg C.  There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over
the northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  An eye is not yet
evident in the imagery, however.  Erick's current intensity
estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  The dynamical guidance indicates that the
vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and
SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady
strengthening.  Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid
strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a
significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system
predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame.
This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU
Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation.

Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt.  A mid-level
ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone
over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward
track.  The track models suggest a slight bend toward the
west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward
excursions.  The new official track forecast is quite similar to
the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical
model consensus.  It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run
shows a track that is even a little farther to the south.

The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent
ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than
previously estimated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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