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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019
 
The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for
several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough
organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now
classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by
T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
The depression is embedded within a good environment for
intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment,
most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC
forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above
the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a
tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of
the forecast period.
 
The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south
of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this
steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone
should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through
the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Avila
 
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